![]() If your win rate is 60% and you change one step with any win or defeat, then you can represent it as the following Markov chain:įor any state X, let E describe the expected number of games required to reach the state “MYTHIC” when we’re currently in state X.įor the state “START,” 40% of the time we play one game and are then back in the same state, and 60% of the game we play one game and advance to state “1 win.” Hence, E = 40% * (1 + E) + 60% * (1 + E). Let’s start by considering an illustrative example of a fictive ranking system with one tier and 3 steps. How to Calculate the Expected Number of Games Required to Hit Mythic? This article is dedicated to that question. In best-of-three, I discovered empirically that tier protection applies to only one match.Ī natural question is how many games you should expect to play to advance to the next rank, or all the way to Mythic.If you win immediately after that drop, then you’re back to Gold 3, step 0, with a 3-game protection. But if you lose again in your next game from that spot, you will drop to Gold 4, step 5. So if you advance from Gold 4, step 5 to Gold 3, step 0 and then go loss-loss-loss or win-loss-loss, you’ll still be Gold 3, step 0 because of that 3-game protection. Although to my knowledge the exact workings have never been officially announced, I discovered empirically that in best-of-one you cannot fall a tier within a rank within 3 games of reaching a new tier. Although losses can push you down a tier within a rank (e.g., from Gold 3 to Gold 4), there is some protection when you move into a tier. ![]() ![]() No matter how many times you lose, you can’t fall from a rank (e.g., from Gold 4 to Silver 1). Once you ascend into a new rank, you’re safe for the rest of the season.Once you get enough steps, you’ll move into the next tier at that rank, or if you’re at tier 1, into the next rank.Since the current implementation only considers the match result, it avoids this issue. This alternative system might therefore yield a different metagame than in a tabletop best-of-three event. The alternative of counting game results, under which you would move 1 step with 2-1 and 2 steps with 2-0, would unduly punish decks that are poor against the field in game 1 but that have excellent sideboards. Personally, I like the choice to count the match result only. So if you win a match 2-1 in Gold, you move up 2 steps. In best-of-three, these gains and losses are doubled, and only the match result counts.You lose steps with a defeat: in best-of-one, it’s 0 steps lost per win in Bronze and 1 step lost per win in all other ranks. You gain steps with wins: in best-of-one, it’s 2 steps gained per win in Bronze and Silver and 1 step gained per win in Gold, Platinum, and Diamond. Everyone initially starts at Bronze tier 4.To rank up in Limited, you’ll want to enter the best-of-one Draft events. To rank up in Constructed, you’ll want to play in the “Ranked” best-of-one games or in the “Ranked” best-of-three games. Ranks operate separately for Constructed and Limited. ![]() For Limited, Bronze consists of 4 steps and all other ranks consist of 5 steps. For Constructed, each tier consists of 6 steps. Each non-Mythic rank has four tiers, with tier 1 being the best and tier 4 being the worst within that rank.
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